Saturday, July 2 / 11:00 - 12:30 Heymans building room 0320

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Session 78
Improvements in forecasting methods

Chair: Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher , Danish Center on Population Research, Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark

1. Lee-Carter Cohort Mortality ForecastsUgofilippo Basellini , Max Planck Institute for demographic Research; Carlo Giovanni G. Camarda , Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).

2. Modelling and Forecasting Healthy Life Expectancy. A Compositional Data Analysis ApproachMarie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher , Danish Center on Population Research, Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark; Cosmo Strozza , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark; Violetta Simonacci, University of Naples Federico II; James Oeppen, Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark.

3. Ex-Post Evaluation of COVID-19 Mortality Forecast ModelsRicarda Duerst , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research; Christina Bohk-Ewald, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.

4. Improving Methods for Fertility Forecasting through the Incorporation of Parity InformationJoanne Ellison , University of Southampton; Ann M. Berrington, University of Southampton; Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton; Erengul Dodd, University of Southampton.

5. Estimating excess deaths with the later/earlier method: An application to French and Spanish regions during the COVID-19 pandemicAinhoa Elena Leger , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark; Silvia Rizzi , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark.

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