Drought and Labor Migration: A Case Study of Rural Mozambique

Sam Hyun Yoo , Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
Victor Agadjanian, Department of Sociology and the International Institute University of California - Los Angeles

Human migration is increasingly influenced by climate shocks. Climate shocks are considered a significant push factor for migration. However, households affected by such shocks may also delay migration as a last resort until other adaptive strategies are exhausted. We examine whether and how migration is related to droughts in a rural Sub-Saharan context where male international labor out-migration has become normalized. We use data from the Men’s Migrations and Women’s Lives, a longitudinal panel in rural Mozambique conducted between 2006 and 2017, and combine it with a high-resolution climate measure, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Using conditional logistic regression, we test the lagged drought effects on household male head’s migration. Results suggest both a strong immediate response and a mild delayed response of migration to droughts. The probability of migration is highest in the first year after a drought. It is also high in the third year after a drought but still smaller than in the first year. This study confirms climate impacts as a driver of migration, especially in low-income rural contexts.

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 Presented in Session P27. Development, Gender, and the Environment