Tempo Effects in Period TFR: Inspecting the Role of Shape and Scale Variations.

Stefano Mazzuco , University of Padova
Lucia Zanotto, Alma Mater Studiorum, University of Bologna

Period TFR measure is widely known to be affected by tempo-effect distortion. The most invoked solution is Bongaarts--Feeney method, which, however, only accounts for temporal shifts but not scale and shape variations. In this paper we consider this issue from a new perspective, e.g. modelling age-specific fertility rates by means of a models with a specific parameter for "quantum" (TFR) and other parameters related to timing, namely a location parameter, a scale one, and a shape one. In this way, we can explore more in detail the effects of location, scale and shape change in cohorts fertility timing on period quantum. We simulate several scenarios and find that when location changes determine most of the tempo effect, but when a rapid change of scale and shape occur, the tempo distortion induced is not negligible.

See paper

 Presented in Session 62. New Methodological Approaches in Fertility Research